Beginner guide
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets people take positions on whether a clearly defined event will happen. The market price changes as participants react to new information and disagree about the outcome.
YES and NO positions
A binary market normally has two sides: YES and NO. If YES trades around 61¢, participants often read that as roughly a 61% market-implied probability. That is an interpretation of the current price—not a scientific forecast or guarantee.
The two displayed prices may not add to exactly 100¢ because of spreads, liquidity and timing.
Why prices move
Prices can change when news arrives, participants revise their views, liquidity changes or large orders enter the market. A move reflects trading activity under that market’s rules; it does not prove that an outcome has become certain.
How a market resolves
Each market should publish a question, deadline, resolution criteria and source. After the relevant event, the underlying platform applies those rules and resolves the market. Read the rules before participating—small differences in wording can materially change what counts as YES.
Prediction market versus poll
A poll asks people what they believe or prefer. A prediction market produces a price from positions participants are willing to take. Both can be wrong, and neither should be treated as certainty.
Where Sidebet fits
Sidebet displays live Polymarket data and lets two friends organize a head-to-head challenge around the same market. Sidebet does not operate the underlying market, hold either user’s money or decide how the question resolves.